Melanoma diagnoses projected to rise in 2026

After years of progress against advanced melanoma, new numbers suggest the disease is still gaining ground. Updated estimates released by the Skin Cancer Foundation in January project a notable rise in melanoma diagnoses this year, even as deaths from the disease continue to decline, largely because of treatment advances. The updated estimates are based on the American Cancer Society’s Cancer Facts & Figures 2026 report.

“Unprotected sun exposure and indoor tanning are the most important factors contributing to melanoma incidence,” said a dermatologist practicing in New York City and senior vice president of the Skin Cancer Foundation.

Skin cancer remains the most common cancer in the United States, with more than 9,500 people diagnosed every day. While nonmelanoma skin cancers account for the vast majority of cases and are not tracked through cancer registries, melanoma represents just a small fraction of skin cancers yet causes most skin-cancer-related deaths. The stakes are high, but so is the opportunity: when melanoma is detected early, the five-year survival rate is about 99%.

Overall melanoma diagnoses are expected to rise 10.6% in 2026. “Photodamage is cumulative, so an aging U.S. population contributes to this increase,” Hale said. She pointed to the long tail of indoor tanning exposure, noting that people who used tanning beds decades ago are “now reaching midlife and facing the potentially life-threatening consequences of intense UV exposure earlier in life with a melanoma diagnosis.”

The updated estimates paint a detailed picture of where melanoma burden is headed:

• 234,680 total melanoma cases are expected to be diagnosed in the United States this year
• 122,680 in situ cases, confined to the top layer of skin
• 112,000 invasive cases, which penetrate deeper into the skin
• Among invasive cases, 65,400 are projected in men and 46,600 in women
• Over the past decade (2016–2026), new invasive melanoma cases increased 46.6%
• 8,510 deaths from melanoma are projected in 2026, including 5,500 men and 3,010 women

“It is unfortunate to see such high incidence of a disease that is highly preventable with a good UV protection strategy,” Hale commented. “It is crucial that the medical community do what it can to help educate patients about their risk for developing melanoma to help reduce these rates and save lives.”

At the same time, melanoma mortality has been declining by roughly 2% per year in women and 3% per year in men, a trend largely attributed to breakthroughs in treating advanced disease.

Hale said the rising incidence reflects both real risk and better detection. “Advancements in research, technology, dermoscopy and treatment have led to increased diagnoses for melanoma,” she said.

For clinicians and managed care professionals, Hale emphasized prevention and early action. “Clinicians have a great opportunity to help educate patients about the importance of protecting themselves from UV exposure from both the sun and tanning beds,” she said.

Hale recommends daily sunscreen use with at least SPF 30, SPF 50 or higher for extended outdoor time, along with seeking shade and wearing protective clothing, wide-brimmed hats, and sunglasses. “Sun protection isn’t just for beach days,” Hale added. “It is important year-round, including on overcast days and during winter months.”

She also stressed the payoff of early detection. “Melanoma patients have a 99% survival rate when the disease is detected in its earliest stages,” Hale said, urging annual full-body skin exams and monthly self-checks for anything new, changing, or unusual.

The message for 2026 is a familiar but urgent one: therapies are saving lives, but prevention and early detection remain the most powerful tools for bending the melanoma curve.