HIV Med Market To Reach $28B in 2029

Market research firm sees growth in sales for injectable therapies developed with an eye toward improving adherence. Sales in pre-exposure prophylaxis are also projected to increase.

Fueled by the growth in the number of injectables, the market for HIV therapeutics in seven major markets will grow from $22.9 billion in 2019 to $28 billion in 2029, according to a recent report by GlobalData, a London-based market research firm

“The long-term efficacy of the pharmacologic management of HIV is highly dependent on patient compliance,” said a publicly available summary of the report, which is behind a paywall.

“Pharmaceutical companies are attempting to address this issue by developing injectable therapies that are administered less frequently than market-leading oral drugs which are taken daily and are linked to side effects such as osteoporosis, hepatotoxicity, and kidney dysfunction.”

According to GlobalData, the U.S. accounted for just over 85% of the HIV drug market in 2019 and its share is expected to increase slightly, to 85.8% in 2029. The seven markets covered are the U.S., France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Japan.

Cabotegravir-based therapies are projected account for almost 80% of the sales of injectable therapeutics in the HIV market in 2029, which works out to estimated sales of $1.5 billion, says the summary of the report.

The pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) market, valued at $2.6 billion in 2019, is expected to grow to $3.3 billion by 2029, a 27% increase, says the GlobalData summary, which also notes that sales will be affected by “generic erosion.”

“The launch of STRs (single-tablet regimens) revolutionized the treatment landscape of HIV and met major unmet needs by increasing patient compliance and improving the safety and tolerability profiles of antiretroviral drugs,” said Magdalene Crabbe, M.A., senior ophthalmology and infectious diseases analyst at GlobalData in the summary posted on the company’s website.

Crabbe continued, “By 2029, other injectable therapies will be available in the market. CytoDyn’s leronlimab and Gilead Sciences’ Lenacapavir are expected to become available in the U.S. and European markets. Additionally, TaiMed’s Trogarzo (ibalizumab), which is an intravenously administered monoclonal antibody, launched in the US in 2018 and in Europe in 2020.”