Survey Predictions on New Drugs May Miss Mark on Budget Impact, Says Jeffrey Casberg, IPD Analytics

Each year, Managed Healthcare Executive surveys U.S. healthcare professionals to share their opinions and predictions on the latest drugs, policies, PBMs and more that are impacting the pharmacy space and healthcare overall.

Out of the more than 10 questions included in the survey, one asked which of the latest drugs serving a variety of conditions will have the largest effect on payer budgets.

Based on the responses, Alyftrek (vanzacaftor, tezacaftor and deutivacaftor), a cystic fibrosis treatment, and Datroway (datopotamab deruxtecan-dlnk), a breast cancer therapy, resulted as the top two.

However, Jeffrey Casberg, M.S., vice president of clinical pharmacy at IPD Analytics, had a different take.

“I would not have picked those two particular ones,” Casberg said.

While Alyftrek, developed by Vertex Pharmaceuticals, does offer improvements in convenience and efficacy, Casberg said it’s unlikely to add significant new costs to payer budgets.

“That drug will be a cost swap with existing therapies,” he noted. “So Vertex already has a couple of good therapies, and patients would likely switch out to this new therapy.”

Casberg had a similar view of Datroway.

“Great approval by (AstraZeneca) for breast cancer, but it's going to be a third, potentially a third-line treatment in breast cancer, and compete with a drug called Trodelvy (sacituzumab govitecan-hziy),” he said. “So, then it would also be a cost offset.”

Instead, Casberg mentioned a different set of drugs he believes deserves more attention for their potential budget impact.

“I would have probably picked a little more sexy drug called Journavx (suzetrigine) from Vertex,” he said, referring to a new non-opioid acute pain treatment. “First new (mechanism of action drug) in 20 years, non-narcotic. I'm not sure if it's going to jump off the page right out of the gate, but I think it's going to be a long-term budget impact.”

He also highlighted Rezdiffra (resmetirom), approved in late 2024 for the liver disease metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), as another drug to watch.

“It seems to be doing very well,” Casberg said. “Although it was launched in 2024, I think 2025 is really where the payers and PBMs are going to notice the financial impact.”

While the survey results reflect a span of industry views, Casberg’s insights suggest a new perspective that may drive real cost change.