Pfizer’s COVID-19 Vaccine Expected to Maintain $37 billion 2022 Sales Into the Future

Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, dominated in 2022 with forecast sales of $37 billion. The vaccine is expected to maintain these sales going into the future, with with sales forecasts up by 16%.

According to GlobalData’s Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Sector Forecast: H2 2022 Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecast report, Comirnaty is expected to have a better year this year with the average annual sales forecast rising by 19% between the first and second half of 2022.

The growth is expected due to Q3 2022 approvals for Comirnaty’s BA.4 and BA.5 bivalent booster vaccines across countries including the U.S., Japan, and the UK, the report said. The vaccine also gained approval for paediatric use in children ages 6 months to 11 years in the U.S, Japan, and other geographies.

”Comirnaty’s 2022 sales forecast is expected to rise by 8%, likely due to Pfizer winning a $3.2 billion agreement with the U.S. government to supply 105 million doses for an autumn vaccination campaign," said Kevin Marcaida, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, in the report. "The deal also offers the U.S. the option to procure an additional 300 million doses, including a mix of doses for both adults and children, which could boost future sales if the option is used.”

Comirnaty is expected to continue its momentum with forecast sales up by over 20% from 2024 to 2027. This is likely due to Pfizer’s announcement to increase Comirnaty’s U.S. prices four-fold in 2023 from an average of $30 per dose to an estimated $110–130 per dose, the report said.

Marcaida said Comirnaty will likely remain the top-selling COVID-19 vaccine despite vaccinations being expected to decline as pandemic pressures begin to ease.

"Comirnaty’s greater sales volume may be attributed to the approval of its Omicron booster vaccine and its approval for paediatric use, which is likely to increase sales in the short and medium term," he added. "In combination with Pfizer’s move to increase pricing in the U.S., this could lead to increased revenue over the long term.”

Outside of Comirnaty's growth, other drug companies could expect similar pushes as COVID is likely to come in waves within these next few months and into the year.

Vincent Liu, M.D., pulmonary critical care physician and researcher for Kaiser Permanente in Northern California, said in a report in January, future COVID-19 waves will likely be less severe and have fewer patients requiring hospitalization. However, the same groups of people remain at higher risk for both infection and severe illness, including those ages 65 and older, immunocompromised people, infants, and people with preexisting conditions like diabetes and heart disease.

“We are likely to see an annual recommendation for COVID-19 vaccinations, much like for influenza, because evidence continues to show that vaccination reduces disease severity,” Liu said.

In addition, there is the possibility of an advancement in vaccination technology in 2023, the report said.

“The strategy is to have one shot that can protect against COVID-19 and influenza,” said Michael Vollmer, M.D., hospital epidemiologist for Kaiser Permanente in Northern California, in the report. “Needing only one shot instead of two can lessen barriers for people to get protected.”