Employer health care costs projected to rise 9.5% in 2027, report finds

Employer healthcare costs could rise 9.5% in 2027, pushing the average per-employee price tag past $19,000, according to a recent analysis by the consulting firm Aon. If this happens, it will be the fourth year running that cost growth has approached double digits, a run Aon says is unmatched in its trend data since 2007. The company currently has data from more than 1,100 U.S. employers representing 7.9 million employees.

Behind the projected growth is a familiar mix of pressures, including climbing utilization of medical services, a growing share of members with chronic conditions, and more high-cost claims moving through employer plans. Specialty and GLP-1 drug spending adds another layer, which is growing as GLP-1s move beyond diabetes and weight management into cardiovascular disease, sleep apnea and chronic kidney disease. New oral formulations are widening the pool of patients who can access the drugs, which cuts against employers' efforts to hold the line on pharmacy spend. Aon also flagged providers’ use of AI tools for clinical documentation and coding, which the firm says is contributing to higher billed charges in some cases.

"The organizations best positioned for the future will be those that can proactively identify emerging risks and take targeted action before costs escalate," Debbie Ashford, North America Chief Actuary, Health Solutions for Aon, also said in the news release. "Health care costs are becoming increasingly difficult to manage through traditional approaches alone. Employers will need better data and deeper insights to understand where costs are rising and how they can make more informed decisions about their health care investments."

Who absorbs the increase?

Employer health plans don't pass every dollar of that growth on to workers. Aon's data shows employers picked up approximately 82% of total plan costs in 2026, a share that's held roughly steady even as the underlying cost trend accelerated. Employer costs more than doubled from 2022 to 2026: climbing from 3.7% to 8.8% in 2026, respectively.

Employees still felt it. The average worker paid $5,297 toward health care in 2026, split between $3,130 in payroll premium contributions and $2,167 in out-of-pocket spending, up from $4,909 the year before. The out-of-pocket piece grew faster than premiums, up 10.2%, which Aon attributes to both higher utilization and a shift toward leaner plan designs with more member cost-sharing built in.

The picture isn't uniform across sectors. Aon's industry breakdown shows a wide spread in how much employer costs grew from 2025 to 2026:

• Finance and Insurance: 9.8%
• Technology and Communications: 9.1%
• Public Sector: 8.8%
• Professional Services: 8.7%
• Retail and Wholesale Trade: 7.7%
• Manufacturing: 7.5%
• Health Care: 6.5%

How this compares across the industry

Aon's numbers land alongside other recent industry data pointing the same direction. KFF's benchmark survey of employer health benefits found family premiums rose 6% in 2025 to reach nearly $27,000, a jump the group said outpaced general inflation by a wide margin. KFF has separately flagged early signals that 2026 cost trends would run even higher. Mercer and the International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans have published similar warnings over the past year, with some industry surveys describing the coming increase as among the largest employers have faced in over a decade.

"Employers have now experienced several consecutive years of health care cost increases that are approaching double digits," Mike Pasterick, North America Health Solutions Leader for Aon, said in the news release. "At this level, rising health care costs become much more than a budgeting challenge and influence organizational decisions from benefits strategy and employee affordability to broader workforce and financial planning priorities."