More GLP-1s and Oral Options Could Shift the Weight Loss Drug Market | Asembia's AXS25 Summit

The GLP-1 drug market is expecting significant changes in the next two years, according to Becky Davis, principal at Charles River Associates.

Davis spoke with Managed Healthcare Executive at this year’s Asembia Specialty Pharmacy Summit in Las Vegas.

She shared projections and payer insights that suggest both innovation and pricing pressure will define the near future of this rapidly growing industry.

Davis said she expects about five new GLP-1 drugs to enter the market by this year or 2026.

These drugs, mostly developed by pharmaceutical giants including Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly and Boehringer Ingelheim, will not only increase treatment options but may also drive price competition.

In addition, expanded indications for existing GLP-1s could cause more pricing pressure.

“Novo’s semaglutide having been selected under the IRA for maximum fair price negotiation, that’s also going to add pressure to bring prices down,” she said.

Oral versions of the drug are another area of development drawing attention, she said.

While injectable GLP-1s are currently more common, oral options from companies such as Lilly and Novo are in late-stage development.

These versions could gear to patients who prefer not to self-inject, although Davis pointed out that more people than expected have shown willingness to use injectable forms.

Either way, questions remain about how oral GLP-1s will be priced in comparison to injectables.

While easier to take, their value will depend on effectiveness, demand and how payers respond.

According to Davis, payers seem more willing to include orals on formularies to provide more flexibility, though cost will remain a concern.

Overall, she sees the market becoming more competitive, which could benefit both patients and the healthcare system.

The next two years should be critical in determining how these therapies are adopted, priced and integrated into treatment protocols.