Skin Cancer Burden in Older Adults Expected to Rise Through 2050, Study Shows

Skin cancer rates among seniors are projected to skyrocket over the next 25 years, with some forms expected to increase by more than 140%, according to research that provides the first comprehensive look at how the disease affects the aging population worldwide.

The research, published in JAMA Dermatology, analyzed data from more than 200 countries between 1990 and 2021 and found that adults 65 years or older experienced more than 150,000 melanoma cases, approximately 1.5 million squamous cell carcinoma cases, and 2.8 million basal cell carcinoma cases in 2021 alone. The researchers estimate that these rates will jump in some cases by nearly threefold as the aging population grows.

"The older population, particularly male individuals and those living in high-sociodemographic countries, is facing a substantial growing burden of skin cancer," the study authors, led by Jin Chen, Ph.D., of Chongqing Medical University in China, wrote.

Population growth emerged as the main driver behind rising cases. Men now have nearly 230% higher squamous cell carcinoma rates than women, a gap researchers attribute to lower sun protection use and greater outdoor exposure. Mortality from melanoma also increases steeply with age: among people 95 and older, the death rate reached 21 per 100,000, compared with 2.5 per 100,000 in those aged 65 to 69.

While improved treatments and early detection have helped stabilize or reduce mortality from melanoma, keratinocyte cancers (basal cell and squamous cell carcinomas) continue their climb at 2% to 6% annually in many regions. The study projects melanoma prevalence will decline by up to 46% by 2050, but basal cell carcinoma incidence could more than double, with a 44% increase in disability-adjusted life-years, a measure combining years of life lost and years lived with disability.

The research also showed wide geographic disparities. The United States had the highest burden of basal cell carcinoma, while New Zealand led in melanoma among older adults. Australasia recorded the steepest decline in melanoma mortality, yet still carries some of the highest global rates. China showed the fastest growth in basal cell carcinoma, with rates climbing nearly 7% annually.

Wealthier countries with higher sociodemographic status, including income, education, and fertility indicators, carried a disproportionately greater burden of skin cancer. The study also projected the sharpest increases will occur in low- and middle-income countries as populations age and sun exposure patterns shift.

Skin cancer affects approximately 1 in 5 Americans during their lifetime, making it the most common cancer in the United States. More than 9,500 people are diagnosed with skin cancer every day. According to the Skin Cancer Foundation, having five or more sunburns doubles the risk for melanoma. When detected early, melanoma has a 99% survival rate, but this drops to 35% when the disease metastasizes to distant organs.

The authors said several factors explain why older adults bear such a heavy burden: decades of accumulated sun damage, increased life expectancy, and more widespread screening that detects cancers that may have been missed in earlier generations. They noted that as the share of people over 65 grows worldwide, skin cancer will continue to expand as a public health challenge.

“These results highlight the urgency for more effective prevention and management strategies targeting high-risk groups,” the study authors wrote.